6 high-impact events where a $1+ move is statistically likely based on historical volatility.
Bull: Phase 2 interim data plus print — double catalyst.
Bear: Binary; misses get punished hard in clinical biotech.
Catalysts: Phase 2 ALK+ NSCLC readout overlapping with print.
Pattern: Last 3 events: +52%, +18%, -34%.
Bull: Channel checks point to a beat-and-raise. Auto OEM deals stacking ahead of guide.
Bear: Positioning is heavy; options skew suggests upside priced in.
Catalysts: Q3 revenue print, FY guide, new automotive contracts.
Pattern: Prior 4 prints averaged +/- $1.40 next-day move.
Bull: Quantum sector tailwind plus rumored federal partnership.
Bear: Revenue still small; any guide cut crushes multiple.
Catalysts: Federal contract update, qubit benchmarks.
Pattern: Avg next-day move 28% over last 4 prints.
Bull: DoD pipeline; defense AI tailwind.
Bear: Dilution history; thin margins.
Catalysts: Federal contract pipeline color, AI defense bookings.
Pattern: Last 4 prints: +/- $1.10 average.
Bull: Forge Enterprise pipeline expansion.
Bear: Stretched on the tape; valuation rich.
Catalysts: Enterprise bookings, contract backlog.
Pattern: Less binary — earnings move averages ~14%.
Bull: Conference abstract overlaps print window.
Bear: Low-float, thin liquidity, single-asset risk.
Catalysts: Trial enrollment update, partnership color.
Pattern: Last 3 events moved >40% intraday.